ARCTIC SECURITY

Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ)

ABOUT THE DISCUSSION GROUP

This discussion group exchanges comments and articles that are relevant, directly or indirectly, to Arctic Security. It will continue exploring pathways to a future Arctic, free of nuclear weapons, while recognizing that Arctic nations presently give low priority to action toward this goal. Discussion content relates to:- current geopolitical status of the Arctic, military exercises, security activity within individual Arctic countries, climate change as related to broadly defined security, nuclear-weapon-free-zones, and human security for the Arctic. Members send relevant articles from the media and/or the web to:
arctic-nuclear-weapon-free@googlegroups.com

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Buckley: Destabilization of the Arctic

By Adele Buckley
Originally published in Journal of Autonomy and Security Studies, 7 (2) 2023

The Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, with the inevitable result that the economy, natural resources, ocean and land sustenance and all human security factors now require rapid adjustment by both government and population. The circumpolar nations have taken pride in an era of peaceful cooperation. Working together for the common good is a deliberate choice of the circumpolar nations but also a necessity because of the extremely harsh climate that prevails in the Arctic lands and waters. Over the past decade Russia has developed many military bases, extended over the whole of its lengthy northern seacoast. The Arctic is a major economic base for Russia. Undersea, the submarine patrols of the Cold War, by both Russia and the United States, had been drastically reduced. Now military exercises in and near the Arctic are extensive; Chinese military vessels have entered the North Pacific. While military resources of individual countries have occasionally entered the Arctic area, there formerly was genuine support for the ideal of a demilitarized Arctic.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a clear indication that Russia is unpredictable and aggressive. Russia could choose aggressive action in the Arctic. The entire Arctic region is thus destabilized while it waits for the future to unfold. This is a brief review of the current situation of Arctic organizations and countries that intend to benefit by the opening of the Arctic. The composite situation provides a way to discern the ongoing destabilization of the Arctic.

Read the full paper here: JASS_2_2023_Buckley

Regehr: Strategic Nuclear Patrols and an Arctic Military Code of Conduct

By Ernie Regehr
Originallly published in: Journal of Autonomy and Security Studies, 7 (2) 2023

While rising northern tensions clearly challenge notions of the Arctic as a durable zone of peace, current tensions are rooted in fears of a European conflict spilling northward, not in conflict endemic to the Arctic. Two decades of high north military expansion have certainly added to the region’s strategic uncertainty, but more consequential are the currently increasing levels and pace of competing strategic patrols in the Arctic, especially those that undermine basic nuclear deterrence. Proposals for an Arctic code of conduct, designed to avoid provocative behaviour and reduce risks of accidental encounters escalating, seek to preserve the Arctic as a low-tension security environment, and proposals to constraint strategic patrols rest on the same principle. In particular U.S. anti-submarine warfare operations aimed at Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent forces threaten the latter’s second-strike forces and thus destabilize mutual strategic deterrence.

Strategic ASW operations have been of enduring concern and have led to a succession of proposals to constrain such deployments. Those ideas, however, have never been elevated to sustained exploration or drawn into formal arms control negotiations. Early 2023 may not seem a propitious time to revive ideas of anti-submarine warfare constraint, but in the long term, strategic stability and resumed arms control and disarmament will require attention to them.

Read full paper: JASS_2_2023_Regehr

Regehr: Military Footprints in the Arctic

The report, Military Footprints in the Arctic, identifies 69 continuously staffed Arctic military sites in the five states with Arctic Ocean coastlines and discusses the challenges of reducing strategic tensions and recovering diplomacy.

As Canada’s first northern indigenous Governor General, Mary Simon has reminded all Arctic states there is a need “to figure out how [they] can continue working together when a terrible war is going on [which is] contradictory to the rules-based international order.”   

 By Ernie Regehr, O.C.
Senior Fellow in Arctic Security and Defence,
The Simons Foundation Canada
with Kelsey Gallagher
Researcher,
Project Ploughshares
March 2024

Policy Imperatives for an Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone

DEDICATION: To the memory of Michael Wallace, who was a member of the Board of Canadian Pugwash. He was a Professor of Political Science at the University of British Columbia, and his expert knowledge of international security and military matters was vast and often used on our behalf. His paper, with Steven Staples, gave us the official kick-off of our campaign to promote the formation of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Arctic.

LEAD SPONSOR: Canadian Pugwash
CO-SPONSORS: Ottawa University, Walter & Duncan Gordon Foundation, Pugwash Council, Rideau Institute, individual donors

Document: Policy Imperatives for an Arctic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone

Photo: Arctic Circle (Oct. 2003) — Three Polar bears approach the starboard bow of the Los Angeles class fast-attack submarine USS Honolulu (SSN 718) while surfaced 280 miles from the North Pole. U.S. Navy photo by Chief Yeoman Alphonso Braggs. (RELEASED)

Arctic Peace and Security Policy Issues

Input re Feb 7, 2018 NGO Roundtable Discussion, Ottawa- ARCTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK

Arctic Peace and Security Policy Issues

 By Adele Buckley, Canadian Pugwash Group
Project Leader – Proposals for a Nuclear Weapon Free Arctic

 THIS DOCUMENT WAS SUBMITTED TO THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA – FEBRUARY 27 2018

PART ONE

 6. The Arctic in a global context

 The history of the circumpolar nations has been one of cooperation, of necessity in the harsh polar environment, and for the mutual benefit of all. As the Arctic opens to greatly enlarged economic and governance activity, there is significant risk that competition and confrontation will occur, and that the presently non-militarized Arctic could change dramatically, in a non-beneficial manner. To this end, it is important that the Arctic should be free of nuclear weapons, and that positive actions by the non-nuclear-weapon circumpolar states should commence in the immediate future. Canada, with its vast territories and extensive coastline is in a key position to draft its Arctic Policy to include its aspiration for a nuclear-weapon-free Arctic, and to take an international leadership role.

In this context, it is very important to recall the 1983 Declaration of the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) on a Nuclear Free Arctic. Re-Issue of an updated Declaration by the ICC could have a powerful impact on the international community and influence progress toward a nuclear-weapon-free Arctic. Canadian Pugwash, together with its international contacts, has significant expertise in current political status of nuclear weapons and would gladly offer assistance in producing updated wording of the Declaration.

When and if the circumpolar non-nuclear-weapon states agree on the nuclear-weapon-free goal, they could approach the United Nations, which would readily offer assistance in forming a Treaty. Russia and the United States, over time, could have reason to withdraw nuclear weapons from this very limited geographic region. Alternatively, true militarization of the Arctic is a possibility, in which case the nuclear weapons of China, Britain and France might also be deployed in the Arctic. Without changing the security strategy presently employed by NW states and their allies, a nuclear-weapon-free Arctic offers a model situation for working out methodology for reduction of NW, verification and eventual nuclear disarmament.

 China, in its new Arctic Policy, has announced its intention to be a key player, to expend major resources to that effect, and, in particular, to facilitate a ‘Polar Silk Road’ . The newly issued policy is aspirational, rather than specific. The policy states ‘Peace and stability in the Arctic provides a significant guarantee for all activities in the region,and serves the fundamental interest of all countries including China’. Every nation involved in the Arctic at present or in the future should and could adopt this stance, but if there is conflict, military activity, including deployment of weapons, could result. China and others would possibly be prompted to send nuclear-weapon equipped submarines; probably forever closing the opportunity for a nuclear-weapon free Arctic. This is the reason why the Government of Canada should act now.

PART TWO

 Several agenda items of the Arctic Policy Framework connect to the themes expressed under the heading of global context, so these connections are briefly addressed here.

 Since China has claimed the status of a ‘near-Arctic-nation’ and will expend huge resources to take advantage of the opportunity; China will influence and contribute to all segments of Arctic issues: transport, environmental, scientific, economic, fishing, tourism.

6.1 Comprehensive Arctic Infrastructure

 Infrastructure, though very costly, must be built; that funded by Chinese interests will be mutually beneficial, but at what cost to Canadian sovereignty? Submarine cables, including fibre-optic cables, serve the interest of all stakeholders. Replacement of failed infrastructure due to permafrost collapse, methane leaks etc. needs to be included in planning.

 6.2 Strong Arctic people and communities

 Arctic people and communities will be strong and safe, only in the absence of military activity, including the absence of subsurface nuclear weapons, and all the geopolitical ramifications thereof.

 6.3 Strong sustainable and diversified Arctic economies

 Arctic economies will thrive and grow properly only if there is a significant increase in population of Canada’s north

6.4 Arctic science and indigenous knowledge

The Canadian government, through increased financial and targeted support, must acquire data on a myriad of facets of the Arctic. China plans extensive scientific research. A cooperative plan for Chinese and Canadian scientists should make acquired data and knowledge mutually available, preferably to all circumpolar sovereign nations. Scientific research will be fruitful in an atmosphere of cooperation and a non-militarized environment.

 6.5 Protecting the environment and conserving Arctic biodiversity

 An Arctic Ocean with subsurface nuclear weapon equipped submarines can not avoid mishaps and perhaps major accidents, all of which will permanently damage the environment. If, as has been already considered, NATO has military exercises in the north, unnecessary emissions will occur, and damage to the environment is also a likely result.

CONTACT: Adele Buckley, Ph.D., 6 Tepee Court, Toronto ON M2J3A9
Email link
416 491 9307

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